Brexit vote prediction: A full list of MPs and how they could vote on Theresa May’s deal – iNews

Former ministers have reportedly written to Tory MPs urging them to block the Prime Minister’s Brexit deal ahead of the Meaningful Vote on Tuesday.

The group, which is said to include Boris Johnson, David Davis and Dominic Raab, said doing so may encourage the EU to come back to the negotiating table and denied that rejecting the deal could lead to a general election.

But Mrs May has won round some members of her party, with four fellow Brexiteers saying over the weekend that they have decided to back the draft Withdrawal Agreement.

The Tory MPs, including Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown and Sir Edward Leigh, said they would support the Government. Tory former minister Andrew Murrison said he also had reservations, but had decided to back the deal.

And Conservative MP Caroline Johnson said she was unhappy with some aspects of the deal and had intended to vote against it but had changed her position.

The crucial vote was due to be held before Christmas, but the Prime Minister dramatically pulled it after it became clear that she was going to lose.

Read: Everything you need to know about the ‘meaningful vote’

But if she was hoping that, during the festive break, she would be able to win over more MPs then she is looking to be disappointed.

Under current analysis, which assumes that almost all Labour MPs vote against the deal, it is looking as though she will be voted down in a crushing defeat.

This is how we think MPs could vote:

Conservative Party

Tories likely to vote FOR the deal:

  1. Adam Afriyie
  2. Alan Duncan
  3. Alan Mak
  4. Alberto Costa
  5. Alec Shelbrooke
  6. Alex Burghart
  7. Alex Chalk
  8. Alistair Burt
  9. Alister Jack
  10. Alok Sharma
  11. Alun Cairns
  12. Amanda Milling
  13. Amber Rudd
  14. Andrea Leadsom
  15. Andrew Bowie
  16. Andrew Griffiths
  17. Andrew Jones
  18. Andrew Murrison
  19. Andrew Percy
  20. Andrew Selous
  21. Andrew Stephenson
  22. Anne Milton
  23. Antoinette Sandbach
  24. Ben Wallace
  25. Bill Grant
  26. Bim Afolami
  27. Bob Blackman
  28. Bob Neill
  29. Bob Seely
  30. Brandon Lewis
  31. Caroline Dineage
  32. Caroline Nokes
  33. Caroline Spelman
  34. Charles Walker
  35. Cheryl Gillan
  36. Chloe Smith
  37. Chris Davies
  38. Chris Grayling
  39. Chris Heaton-Harris
  40. Chris Philp
  41. Chris Skidmore
  42. Christopher Pincher
  43. Claire Perry
  44. Colin Clark
  45. Craig Whittaker
  46. Damian Green
  47. Damian Hinds
  48. Daniel Poulter
  49. David Davies
  50. David Duguid
  51. David Gauke
  52. David Lidington
  53. David Morris
  54. David Mundell
  55. David Rutley
  56. David Tredinnick
  57. David Warburton
  58. Dr Caroline Johnson
  59. Ed Vaizey
  60. Eddie Hughes
  61. Edward Argar
  62. Edward Leigh
  63. Elizabeth Truss
  64. Fiona Bruce
  65. Gareth Johnson
  66. Gary Streeter
  67. Gavin Williamson
  68. Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
  69. Geoffrey Cox
  70. George Eustice
  71. George Freeman
  72. George Hollingbery
  73. Gillian Keegan
  74. Glyn Davies
  75. Graham Brady
  76. Graham Stuart
  77. Greg Clark
  78. Greg Hands
  79. Greg Knight
  80. Guy Opperman
  81. Harriett Baldwin
  82. Heather Wheeler
  83. Helen Grant
  84. Helen Whately
  85. Henry Bellingham
  86. Huw Merriman
  87. Iain Stewart
  88. Ian Liddell-Grainger
  89. Jack Brereton
  90. Jack Lopresti
  91. Jackie Doyle-Price
  92. Jake Berry
  93. James Brokenshire
  94. James Cartlidge
  95. James Cleverly
  96. James Heappey
  97. James Morris
  98. Jeremy Hunt
  99. Jeremy Lefroy
  100. Jeremy Quin
  101. Jeremy Wright
  102. Jesse Norman
  103. Jo Churchill
  104. John Glen
  105. John Howell
  106. John Lamont
  107. John Penrose
  108. John Stevenson
  109. Jonathan Djanogly
  110. Jonathan Lord
  111. Julian Knight
  112. Julian Smith
  113. Julian Sturdy
  114. Justin Tomlinson
  115. Karen Bradley
  116. Keith Simpson
  117. Kelly Tolhurst
  118. Kemi Badenoch
  119. Kenneth Clarke
  120. Kevin Foster
  121. Kevin Hollinrake
  122. Kirstene Hair
  123. Kit Malthouse
  124. Kwasi Kwarteng
  125. Leo Docherty
  126. Liam Fox
  127. Lucy Frazer
  128. Luke Graham
  129. Luke Hall
  130. Maggie Throup
  131. Marcus Jones
  132. Margot James
  133. Maria Miller
  134. Mark Field
  135. Mark Garnier
  136. Mark Lancaster
  137. Mark Menzies
  138. Mark Pawsey
  139. Mark Prisk
  140. Mark Spencer
  141. Mary Robinson
  142. Matt Hancock
  143. Matt Warman
  144. Mel Stride
  145. Michael Ellis
  146. Michael Gove
  147. Michelle Donelan
  148. Mike Freer
  149. Mike Wood
  150. Mims Davies
  151. Nadhim Zahawi
  152. Neil O’Brien
  153. Nicholas Soames
  154. Nick Boles
  155. Nick Gibb
  156. Nick Herbert
  157. Nick Hurd
  158. Nicky Morgan
  159. Nigel Adams
  160. Nigel Huddleston
  161. Nusrat Ghani
  162. Oliver Dowden
  163. Oliver Heald
  164. Oliver Letwin
  165. Patrick McLoughlin
  166. Paul Beresford
  167. Paul Masterton
  168. Paul Maynard
  169. Paul Scully
  170. Penny Mordaunt
  171. Peter Aldous
  172. Peter Bottomley
  173. Peter Heaton-Jones
  174. Philip Dunne
  175. Philip Hammond
  176. Rachel Maclean
  177. Rebecca Harris
  178. Rebecca Pow
  179. Richard Bacon
  180. Richard Benyon
  181. Richard Graham
  182. Richard Harrington
  183. Rishi Sunak
  184. Robert Buckland
  185. Robert Goodwill
  186. Robert Jenrick
  187. Robin Walker
  188. Roger Gale
  189. Rory Stewart
  190. Sajid Javid
  191. Sarah Newton
  192. Seema Kennedy
  193. Simon Hart
  194. Simon Hoare
  195. Stephen Crabb
  196. Stephen Hammond
  197. Stephen Kerr
  198. Stephen McPartland
  199. Steve Barclay
  200. Steve Brine
  201. Stuart Andrew
  202. Theresa May
  203. Thérèse Coffey
  204. Thomas Tugendhat
  205. Tobias Ellwood
  206. Trudi Harrison
  207. Tom Pursglove
  208. Vicky Ford
  209. Victoria Atkins
  210. Victoria Prentis
  211. Wendy Morton
  212. William Wragg
Anna Soubry has been a vocal critic of her party’s deal (Getty)

Tories likely to vote AGAINST the deal:

  1. Adam Holloway
  2. Andrea Jenkyns
  3. Andrew Bridgen
  4. Andrew Mitchell
  5. Andrew Lewer
  6. Andrew Rosindell
  7. Anna Soubry
  8. Anne Main
  9. Anne-Marie Morris
  10. Anne-Marie Trevelyan
  11. Ben Bradley
  12. Bernard Jenkin
  13. Bill Cash
  14. Bill Wiggin
  15. Bob Stewart
  16. Boris Johnson
  17. Charlie Elphicke
  18. Chris Green
  19. Christopher Chope
  20. Conor Burns
  21. Craig Mackinlay
  22. Craig Tracey
  23. Crispin Blunt
  24. Damian Collins
  25. Damien Moore
  26. Daniel Kawczynski
  27. David Amess
  28. David Davis
  29. David Evennett
  30. David Jones
  31. Derek Thomas
  32. Desmond Swayne
  33. Dominic Grieve
  34. Dominic Raab
  35. Douglas Ross
  36. Esther McVey
  37. Giles Watling
  38. Gordon Henderson
  39. Grant Shapps
  40. Guto Bebb
  41. Heidi Allen
  42. Henry Smith
  43. Hugo Swire
  44. Iain Duncan Smith
  45. Jacob Rees-Mogg
  46. James Duddridge
  47. James Gray
  48. Jo Johnson
  49. John Baron
  50. John Hayes
  51. John Redwood
  52. John Whittingdale
  53. Johnny Mercer
  54. Julia Lopez
  55. Julian Lewis
  56. Justine Greening
  57. Laurence Robertson
  58. Lee Rowley
  59. Lucy Allan
  60. Marcus Fysh
  61. Maria Caulfield
  62. Mark Francois
  63. Mark Harper
  64. Mark Pritchard
  65. Martin Vickers
  66. Matthew Offord
  67. Michael Fabricant
  68. Michael Fallon
  69. Michael Tomlinson
  70. Mike Penning
  71. Nadine Dorries
  72. Neil Parish
  73. Nigel Evans
  74. Nigel Mills
  75. Owen Paterson
  76. Pauline Latham
  77. Peter Bone
  78. Philip Davies
  79. Philip Hollobone
  80. Phillip Lee
  81. Priti Patel
  82. Ranil Jayawardena
  83. Rehman Chishti
  84. Richard Drax
  85. Robert Halfon
  86. Robert Courts
  87. Robert Syms
  88. Ross Thomson
  89. Royston Smith
  90. Sam Gyimah
  91. Sarah Wollaston
  92. Scott Mann
  93. Shailesh Vara
  94. Sheryll Murray
  95. Simon Clarke
  96. Stephen Metcalfe
  97. Stephen McPartland
  98. Steve Baker
  99. Steve Double
  100. Suella Braverman
  101. Theresa Villiers
  102. Tim Loughton
  103. Tracey Crouch
  104. Will Quince
  105. Zac Goldsmith
Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer and Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn

Labour Party

Labour MPs expected to vote AGAINST the deal

The following are expected to block the deal because they have either publicly supported the People’s Vote campaign for another referendum, they are a member of the party frontbench, or are party whips:

  1. Afzal Khan
  2. Alan Campbell
  3. Alan Whitehead
  4. Alex Sobel
  5. Alison McGovern
  6. Andrew Gwynne
  7. Andy McDonald
  8. Angela Eagle
  9. Angela Rayner
  10. Angela Smith
  11. Anna McMorrin
  12. Anna Turley
  13. Anneliese Dodds
  14. Barbara Keeley
  15. Barry Gardiner
  16. Barry Sheerman
  17. Ben Bradshaw
  18. Bill Esterson
  19. Bridget Phillipson
  20. Carolyn Harris
  21. Cat Smith
  22. Catherine McKinnell
  23. Catherine West
  24. Chi Onwurah
  25. Chris Leslie
  26. Chris Matheson
  27. Chris Ruane
  28. Christina Rees
  29. Chuka Umunna
  30. Clive Lewis
  31. Conor McGinn
  32. Dame Margaret Hodge
  33. Dan Carden
  34. Daniel Zeichner
  35. Darren Jones
  36. David Drew
  37. David Lammy
  38. Dawn Butler
  39. Diane Abbott
  40. Emily Thornberry
  41. Emma Lewell-Buck
  42. Fabian Hamilton
  43. Fiona Onasanya
  44. Gareth Thomas
  45. Gavin Shuker
  46. Gerald Jones
  47. Gill Furniss
  48. Gloria De Piero
  49. Gordon Marsden
  50. Helen Hayes
  51. Holly Lynch
  52. Ian Lavery
  53. Ian Murray
  54. Imran Hussain
  55. Jack Dromey
  56. Janet Daby
  57. Jeff Smith
  58. Jenny Chapman
  59. Jeremy Corbyn
  60. Jess Phillips
  61. Jessica Morden
  62. Jim McMahon
  63. Jo Platt
  64. Jo Stevens
  65. Joan Ryan
  66. John Healey
  67. Jon Ashworth
  68. Jon Trickett
  69. Jonathan Reynolds
  70. Judith Cummins
  71. Julie Elliott
  72. Justin Madders
  73. Karen Lee
  74. Karin Smyth
  75. Karl Turner
  76. Kate Hollern
  77. Kate Osamor
  78. Keir Starmer
  79. Kerry McCarthy
  80. Kevin Brennan
  81. Khalid Mahmood
  82. Lesley Laird
  83. Liam Byrne
  84. Liz McInnes
  85. Lloyd Russell-Moyle
  86. Louise Ellman
  87. Louise Haigh
  88. Luciana Berger
  89. Lyn Brown
  90. Margaret Greenwood
  91. Maria Eagle
  92. Mark Tami
  93. Marsha de Cordova
  94. Martin Whitfield
  95. Mary Creagh
  96. Mary Glindon
  97. Matt Rodda
  98. Matthew Pennycook
  99. Melanie Onn
  100. Mike Amesbury
  101. Mike Gapes
  102. Mike Kane
  103. Naz Shah
  104. Neil Coyle
  105. Nia Griffith
  106. Nic Dakin
  107. Nick Brown
  108. Nick Smith
  109. Nick Thomas-Symonds
  110. Paul Blomfield
  111. Paul Sweeney
  112. Paul Williams
  113. Paula Sherriff
  114. Peter Dowd
  115. Peter Kyle
  116. Phil Wilson
  117. Preet Gill
  118. Rachael Maskell
  119. Rebecca Long-Bailey
  120. Richard Burden
  121. Richard Burgon
  122. Roberta Blackman-Woods
  123. Roger Godsiff
  124. Rosena Allin-Khan
  125. Rosie Cooper
  126. Rosie Duffield
  127. Rupa Huq
  128. Rushanara Ali
  129. Ruth Cadbury
  130. Sharon Hodgson
  131. Siobhain McDonagh
  132. Stella Creasy
  133. Stephen Doughty
  134. Stephen Morgan
  135. Stephen Pound
  136. Steve Reed
  137. Sue Hayman
  138. Thangam Debbonaire
  139. Tom Watson
  140. Tonia Antoniazzi
  141. Tony Lloyd
  142. Tracy Brabin
  143. Tulip Siddiq
  144. Valerie Vaz
  145. Vicky Foxcroft
  146. Virendra Sharma
  147. Wayne David
  148. Wes Streeting
  149. Yasmin Qureshi
  150. Yvonne Fovargue

The following are also expected to vote against because they tend to vote with the party, but unlike the previous list have not confirmed their view:

  1. Adrian Bailey
  2. Albert Owen
  3. Alex Cunningham
  4. Alex Norris
  5. Andy Slaughter
  6. Ann Clwyd
  7. Ann Coffey
  8. Bambos Charalambous
  9. Chris Bryant
  10. Chris Evans
  11. Chris Williamson
  12. Christopher Elmore
  13. Clive Betts
  14. Clive Efford
  15. Colleen Fletcher
  16. Dame Margaret Beckett
  17. Dan Jarvis
  18. Danielle Rowley
  19. David Crausby
  20. David Hanson
  21. Debbie Abrahams
  22. Denis Skinner
  23. Derek Twigg
  24. Diana Johnson
  25. Ed Miliband
  26. Eleanor Smith
  27. Ellie Reeves
  28. Emma Dent Coad
  29. Emma Hardy
  30. Emma Reynolds
  31. Faisal Rashid
  32. Gareth Snell
  33. Ged Killen
  34. Geoffrey Robinson
  35. George Howarth
  36. Geraint Davies
  37. Graham Jones
  38. Graham Stringer
  39. Grahame Morris
  40. Harriet Harman
  41. Helen Goodman
  42. Helen Jones
  43. Hilary Benn
  44. Hugh Gaffney
  45. Ian Austin
  46. Ian Lucas
  47. Ian Mearns
  48. Ivan Lewis
  49. James Frith
  50. Jim Cunningham
  51. Jim Fitzpatrick
  52. John Cryer
  53. John Grogan
  54. John Mann
  55. John McDonnell
  56. John Spellar
  57. Jon Cruddas
  58. Julie Cooper
  59. Karen Buck
  60. Kate Green
  61. Kate Hoey
  62. Keith Vaz
  63. Kevan Jones
  64. Kevin Barron
  65. Laura Pidcock
  66. Laura Smith
  67. Lilian Greenwood
  68. Lisa Nandy
  69. Liz Kendall
  70. Liz Twist
  71. Lucy Powell
  72. Luke Pollard
  73. Madeleine Moon
  74. Marie Rimmer
  75. Mark Hendrick
  76. Matt Western
  77. Meg Hillier
  78. Mike Hill
  79. Mohammad Yasin
  80. Owen Smith
  81. Pat McFadden
  82. Paul Farrelly
  83. Paul Flynn
  84. Rachel Reeves
  85. Ronnie Campbell
  86. Ruth George
  87. Ruth Smeeth
  88. Sandy Martin
  89. Sarah Champion
  90. Sarah Jones
  91. Seema Malhotra
  92. Shabana Mahmood
  93. Stephanie Peacock
  94. Stephen Hepburn
  95. Stephen Kinnock
  96. Stephen Timms
  97. Stephen Twigg
  98. Steve McCabe
  99. Susan Elan Jones
  100. Tan Dhesi
  101. Teresa Pearce
  102. Thelma Walker
  103. Toby Perkins
  104. Vernon Coaker
  105. Yvette Cooper
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) leader Arlene Foster on 20 July 20, 2018 (AFP/Getty Images)
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) leader Arlene Foster (AFP/Getty Images)

Other opposition voting AGAINST the deal

DUP

  1. David Simpson
  2. Emma Little-Pengelly
  3. Gavin Robinson
  4. Gregory Campbell
  5. Ian Paisley Jr
  6. Jeffrey Donaldson
  7. Jim Shannon
  8. Nigel Dodds
  9. Paul Girvan
  10. Sammy Wilson

Liberal Democrats

  1. Alistair Carmichael
  2. Christine Jardine
  3. Ed Davey
  4. Jamie Stone
  5. Jo Swinson
  6. Layla Moran
  7. Norman Lamb
  8. Tim Farron
  9. Tom Brake
  10. Vince Cable
  11. Wera Hobhouse

Green Party

  1. Caroline Lucas

Scottish National Party (SNP)

  1. Alan Brown
  2. Alison Thewliss
  3. Angela Crawley
  4. Angus MacNeil
  5. Brendan O’Hara
  6. Carol Monaghan
  7. Chris Law
  8. Chris Stephens
  9. David Linden
  10. Deidre Brock
  11. Douglas Chapman
  12. Drew Hendry
  13. Gavin Newlands
  14. Hannah Bardell
  15. Ian Blackford
  16. Joanna Cherry
  17. John McNally
  18. Kirsty Blackman
  19. Lisa Cameron
  20. Marion Fellows
  21. Martin Docherty-Hughes
  22. Martyn Day
  23. Mhairi Black
  24. Neil Gray
  25. Patricia Gibson
  26. Patrick Grady
  27. Pete Wishart
  28. Peter Grant
  29. Philippa Whitford
  30. Ronnie Cowan
  31. Stephen Gethins
  32. Stewart Hosie
  33. Stewart McDonald
  34. Stuart McDonald
  35. Tommy Sheppard

Plaid Cymru

  1. Ben Lake
  2. Hywel Williams
  3. Jonathan Edwards
  4. Liz Saville-Roberts

Independent

  1. Kelvin Hopkins
  2. Jared O’Mara
  3. John Woodcock

Opposition MPs voting FOR the deal:

There are only a handful of opposition MPs who have publicly said they would vote for the deal. These are:

  1. Caroline Flint (Labour)
  2. Frank Field (Independent)
  3. Stephen Lloyd (Lib Dem)
  4. Lady Sylvia Hermon (Independent)

Note: not included in this list are the seven Sinn Fein MPs who abstain from voting and the Commons Speaker and his three deputies who cannot vote.

Join the i readers’ Facebook group to stay up to date with, and discuss, the latest developments in UK politics.